Investing in a business is also a bet. The capital you provide is a known quantity, you risk it for an uncertain outcome (the future value of the shares).
If your informational edge is just America invading Greenland, let's say you know that for sure. Then you could invest in the business, but you might actually be diluting your edge if you don't know more than the market does about the fundamentals of the business.
The business could already have a lot of debt, and unable to get more to finance an expansion into Greenland.
It would be less risky in that instance to just bet on the invasion, since that is where your edge is.
If your informational edge is just America invading Greenland, let's say you know that for sure. Then you could invest in the business, but you might actually be diluting your edge if you don't know more than the market does about the fundamentals of the business. The business could already have a lot of debt, and unable to get more to finance an expansion into Greenland. It would be less risky in that instance to just bet on the invasion, since that is where your edge is.